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ALB and CCJ: a dated lithium and uranium research note

Two names, a put-option comparison, and a reason the author did not trade at the quoted prices.

  • A social post raised a question about lithium and uranium demand. This note records the research at the time.
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  • Which public companies might benefit? That is where the work starts.
  • An AI-generated list surfaced ALB and CCJ. That was a lead, not evidence. The follow-up looked at revenue scale and profitability.
    • Largest revenue
    • Profitable
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    Notion image
  • At the time of this note, ALB traded well below a prior high while CCJ was near one. Price history alone did not settle valuation.
  • The note considered put options instead of buying shares at those prices. The premium and risk still had to make sense.
  • At the quoted prices, each put offered about 1.0% of the cash needed to buy 100 shares:
    • $80/($75*100 shares) = ~1.0%
      • Notion image
    • $115/($100*100 shares) = ~1.0%
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  • At those quotes, 1.0% was below the note's 3.0% target. The conclusion was to wait, not to force a trade.